Guide
Can I retire at 55 or 60 in Canada? Six households run the numbers
It depends on what you spend, what you have and what you will receive, so the only honest answer is to run it. Three working households retire at three ages each, after tax, year by year, through 500 market futures. For the Ontario couple the odds of the money lasting go from 47.4% at fifty-five to 97.0% at sixty-five; for the single parent, from 1.2% to 20.6%.
The short answer
Retiring at fifty-five works for a household whose savings can cover about thirty-five years of spending after tax with CPP and OAS still years away; retiring at sixty is easier by more than the five years suggest, because CPP arrives sooner and there are five fewer years to fund. For the three households below, the share of 500 simulated futures in which the money lasts is:
What “enough” means
The test is not a number of dollars but whether spending, after tax, is covered every year to the end of the plan. The Ontario couple spend $70,000 a year in today’s dollars, $47,000 of it on housing, groceries and utilities and $23,000 on travel, dining and hobbies. The single parent spends $42,000. Each retirement age is run through the planner’s whole model: federal and provincial tax, CPP and OAS at their start ages, RRIF minimums, the OAS clawback, and 500 random sequences of market returns.
An Ontario couple
Both 52, earning $125,000 and $98,000, with $798,000 of savings and two teenagers still at home.
Retiring at 55, 47.4% of the futures hold; at 65, 97.0%. On the expected path, retiring at 55 the money lasts to the end of the plan at 92, with $1,340,114 of savings on the day of retirement; at 65 it is $2,992,629.
| Retire at | Futures that hold | Savings at retirement | Money lasts to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 47.4% | $1,340,114 | 92 |
| 60 | 86.8% | $2,009,850 | 92 |
| 65 | 97.0% | $2,992,629 | 92 |
A single person in British Columbia
58, earning $90,000, with $530,000 of savings; already planning to retire at 62, so the ages run are sixty, sixty-two and sixty-five.
Retiring at 60, 58.6% of the futures hold; at 65, 73.8%. On the expected path, retiring at 60 the money lasts to the end of the plan at 92, with $746,476 of savings on the day of retirement; at 65 it is $1,093,038.
| Retire at | Futures that hold | Savings at retirement | Money lasts to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 58.6% | $746,476 | 92 |
| 62 | 64.6% | $865,325 | 92 |
| 65 | 73.8% | $1,093,038 | 92 |
A single parent in Ontario
44, earning $72,000, with $86,000 of savings and two young children. Eleven years from fifty-five and with children still to raise, the early ages are out of reach on the current savings, and the table says so.
Retiring at 55, 1.2% of the futures hold; at 65, 20.6%. On the expected path, retiring at 55 the money runs out at 56, with $112,050 of savings on the day of retirement; at 65 it is $80,172.
| Retire at | Futures that hold | Savings at retirement | Money lasts to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 1.2% | $112,050 | 56 |
| 60 | 9.0% | $51,403 | 61 |
| 65 | 20.6% | $80,172 | 69 |
What moves the answer
For the Ontario couple retiring at fifty-five, two levers, each measured on its own:
- Spending 20.0% less on the flexible costs (travel, dining, hobbies) raises the odds from 47.4% to 56.8%.
- Starting CPP at seventy instead of sixty-five raises the odds to 50.4%.
Retiring later is the strongest lever of all, and it is the one people have least control over.
The three households already retired
The retired single person in Alberta, 66, with $520,000 of savings and part-time income: 73.6% of futures hold. The Quebec couple, 61 and 59, one on an employer pension: 100.0%. The retired Nova Scotia couple, 72 and 74, on modest savings with CPP, OAS and GIS: 100.0%, because their spending is covered by the pensions rather than by the market.
Computed with Retirafy’s engine on the 2025 federal and provincial tables, in today’s dollars. How the projection works.
See your own odds at 55, 60 or 65Free for one household. No card, no password.