Guide
How long will my retirement savings last in Canada?
A calculator that divides savings by spending answers a question nobody has, because tax, CPP, OAS, the RRIF minimums and the order of market returns all change the answer. Three households are projected at three rates of return, then through 500 random futures each. For the single person in British Columbia the expected path lasts, and 35.4% of the futures do not.
The short answer
On the expected path, with the planner’s default return of 6.5% on equities, the single person’s savings lasts to the end of the plan at 92, the Ontario couple’s lasts to the end of the plan at 92 and the Nova Scotia couple’s lasts to the end of the plan at 95. Through 500 random futures, the money lasts in 64.6%, 97.0% and 100.0% of them. The single expected path and the spread of futures are two different answers, and you need both.
Three households, three returns
Each household is projected with equities returning 3.0%, 5.0% and 7.0% a year, every year. The table shows the age the money lasts to and what is left at the end of the plan after tax, in today’s dollars, then the share of simulated futures in which it lasts.
| Household | Lasts to, at 3.0% | at 5.0% | at 7.0% | Left at 3.0% | at 5.0% | at 7.0% | Futures that hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC single | 92 | 92 | 92 | $984,389 | $1,438,017 | $2,422,629 | 64.6% |
| Ontario couple | 92 | 92 | 92 | $1,766,203 | $3,528,892 | $6,895,548 | 97.0% |
| Nova Scotia couple | 95 | 95 | 95 | $809,089 | $885,848 | $994,710 | 100.0% |
The balance path
The single person in British Columbia, 58, earning $90,000, with $530,000 of savings, retiring at 62, spending $44,000 a year. Liquid savings by age at the three returns:
Why a single return misleads
Every line above is smooth because every year returns the same. Real markets do not, and the order matters: a bad stretch in the first years of retirement, when withdrawals are taken from a shrinking balance, does damage that a good stretch later cannot repair. Through 500 random futures, the single person’s money lasts in 64.6% of them and runs out in 35.4%. What is left at the end is $1,453,480 in the middle future and $522,098 in the tenth-worst of a hundred, against $2,114,903 on the expected path. A plan should be judged on the share of futures it survives, not on the one path a spreadsheet draws.
What extends it
- Spending 10.0% less on the flexible costs. For the single person, the money then lasts to the end of the plan at 92 and $75,039 more is left at the end.
- Starting CPP at seventy. For the Ontario couple, the money then lasts to the end of the plan at 92 and $43,037 more is left at the end.
Neither lever is free: the first is a smaller life, the second a longer wait on savings. Whether either is worth it for you is the question a plan of your own answers.
Computed with Retirafy’s engine on the 2025 federal and provincial tables, in today’s dollars. How the projection works.
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